Daily Fantasy Sports in a nutshell; plus NFL week 5 picks
<span id="docs-internal-guid-943ff764-4dd5-c0af-a4f6-ed6d9cfc3956" style="font-size: 14.6667px; font-family: Calibri; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: 400; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Donnie Laur is former Du Quoin native and he was the creator of the 618 Football website in 2007.</span>
This is going to be your starter's guide to daily fantasy sports. If you didn't know what FanDuel and DraftKings was last year, the non-stop commercials have brought it to the forefront. Daily Fantasy Sports is like your standard fantasy league but finish within a few days and it is without a live draft. The concept is the same as season long fantasy but you are targeting a given week or set of games and you can select any player in those contests. Everyone has the ability to select the same set of athletes at each position. The goal is to score the most fantasy points. Fantasy points are accumulated from gaining yards and scoring touchdowns in NFL contests.
I have been playing daily fantasy sports every week since I relocated from Du Quoin to Atlanta. It is a hobby for me that can provide an income stream. You do have to pay taxes on your winnings over $600 and I have won several contest against entry fields of hundreds of thousands. Some prizes offered by daily fantasy sites have reached top prizes of $2 million dollars for a $20 entry fee. The commercials do make it seem easier to win big money and that isn't easy to do as you are playing against half a million people for that top prize. Anyone can win, but it will not be easy. You can decide to play against just one person as many different contests are available. I have won several contest with prizes awarded over one thousand dollars and collected over one thousand wins. However, some people do this as a full-time job and not a weekend hobby so edge your expectations of filling up your bank account. Come into it looking for a fun hobby for those that enjoy sports and you will like the experience. It does have some similarity to playing the lottery but results are not random as they can be predictive. You can use statistics and knowledge of a game to predict the performance of an athlete.
Each athlete is assigned a salary for one game and the salary cap is enforced allowing you to pick only players that fit within the money you have been allotted. The NFL contests start each Sunday at 1 pm and finish after Monday Night Football. You pay an entry fee for each contest you select to enter and if you are a winner you will get paid money to your account within a day. Money can be withdrawn to your bank account or PayPal within hours or days, according to the site. Major sports leagues are available including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and even NASCAR, Golf, MMA and competitive gaming. Each Daily Fantasy Contest requires two games or a day long event to be legal and it is legal in 46 US states. Playing daily fantasy is sort of like being an owner of your own make believe team.
It is a game of skill, therefore winning regularly in daily fantasy can be easy but not right away. There is a learning curve but if you're up for putting in the time you can make a steady profit. If you play among your immediate circle and friends you'll probably have no problem winning. Once you fire up a few games against others you'll realize that their is a learning curve to get up to speed. There are professionals who play daily fantasy sports for a living. I would suggest playing amongst a group of friends to start out and branching out to enter into larger prize pools as you learn more about how to play.
With that being said this column is designed to help you navigate the waters that is DFS. I will focus in on a key concept each and every week for you to apply as well as the top plays at each position. Imagine that DFS is a season long league with a waiver wire but everyone is in play. Everyone is a free agent and you're piecing together the best possible team on a weekly basis.
The twist is the salary cap which is the exact amount of money you can play. Player values fluctuate up and down according to a variety of factors. It most closely resembles a stock market. Some of the key factors are recent performance, history and popularity. Much like the stock market you can only comb over so many factors. Sometimes things are simply unpredictable such as injuries or a breakout performance.
One of the biggest pieces of advice I can give you is to start out slow as you learn how the process works. Think long term and apply new statistics on a daily basis. I have helped people learn how to improve their thought process and to win regularly. My friend and I, Arash Ghaemi, have created DraftShot to help others look at data and make decisions that lead you to refine your winning process.
This week let's break down how to attack one of the most important positions in all of sports: Quarterback! How do you pick a QB in DFS? Remember, because of the salary cap starting a guy like Aaron Rodgers may make it difficult for you to roster other good players at key spots. Here's some things to look for when picking a QB.
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Match Up:</span> Look for teams with cornerback injuries or week pass rushes. It's usually better to target players at home versus the road. This week some of the worst defenses you can target are the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders.
There is an issue with those teams where you may not want to take a QB against them. The Chiefs are installed as -9.5 favorites against the Bears at home. Starting Jay Cutler against the Chiefs could be a disaster as Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest to play in all of sports. The Saints are playing the Eagles who are struggling so Bradford is a risky pick and the Bills defense is always a threat to turn it on especially against the rookie Marcus Mariota.
You can reasonably start Peyton Manning against the Raiders, Alex Smith against the Bears. Eli Manning against the 49ers and Phillip Rivers against the Steelers. All those QBs are playing soft defenses prone to giving up big plays.
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Price:</span> Once you've found a choice match up then look to the QB. Don't look at the QB first and make your decision. Even a guy like the NY Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can have a huge game. Sleepers are able to come out of nowhere and score fantasy points that no one expected. Athletes step in because of injury and perform well as cheaper prices. Each fantasy site has a different scoring system so know your fantasy site that you are playing on.
Remember, price is all relative! A guy could be cheap if he's playing the right defense but seem expensive at first. A cheap QB isn't always safe if his name is Jimmy Clausen and the coaches don't trust him.
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Week 5 Picks</span>
QB Phillip Rivers
Rivers is coming off a 358 yard 3 touchdown day. On Monday night he gets to play the Steelers at home who are ranked 12th worst against the QB position in fantasy football. He also lacks a strong run game which makes it more likely he ends up in the hurry up throwing quick passes.
RB Jamaal Charles
Charles is still the Chiefs best weapon and only 2 weeks removed from a 3 Touchdown performance against the Packers. He now gets to play the Bears in a game script that favors the run game. The Chiefs are 9.5 point favorite and Charles should be involved early and when the game gets out of hand.
WR Julian Edelman
Tom Brady has a huge chip on his shoulder and is taking it out on the league and throwing the ball to Edelman. Edelman has 30 receptions with 2 touchdowns in 3 games and the Patriots are coming off of a bye week. The Patriots are up against the Dallas Cowboys who are hurting because of injuries.
TE Owen Daniels
Peyton Manning performance isn't as strong as it has been in previous years but it is good enough to get the ball to Daniels on the road. The Raiders are ranked dead last in the league against the TE position having already given up 6 touchdown passes. You want to exploit this weakness in your lineups.
DEF Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a scary, smash mouth defense with a deep front seven. They already have 17 sacks to go along with 6 interceptions and are getting Derek Wolfe back this week. They are ranked number 1 for fantasy defense although they are average at defending the run. Even though Derek Carr and Amari Cooper look impressive they are no match for the Broncos pass rush.
If you want more fantasy advice you can find me on Twitter @donnielaur or read fantasy advice at Draftshot.com.